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Eastman Kodak: A Scenario Planning Case Study

 


Chermack (2004) defined scenario planning as a process for posing and ruminating upon a variety of future trajectories. Such an approach sets the stage for strategic conversations as it enables key decision makers to engage in a dialogue about organizational priorities, goals, and long-term plans. According to Verity (2003), scenario planning helps overcome some of the weaknesses associated with traditional forecasting and its strict reliance on the stability of past events. Companies that recognize, embrace, and confront the concept of uncertainty, instead of assuming a more simplistic continuation of trends, are equipped with a competitive edge, and well positioned for future success (Courtney, Kirkland, & Viguerie, 1997). Moreover, companies that resist widening their lens to incorporate paths of potential ambiguity risk staying afloat during times of societal change. The following discussion focuses on one such company, Eastman Kodak, and after highlighting its early achievements, explains how its lack of scenario planning was a factor that led to its eventual demise. Various influential forces are articulated, describing how they each contributed a unique dimension to the failure, and concluding remarks summarize the drawn conclusions.

The Origin and Initial Success Eastman Kodak

Mendes (2011) explained that the Eastman Kodak Company was founded in 1880 when George Eastman invented, and later patented, a novel dry-plate formula with an associated machine designed to handle the large-scale preparation of glass photographic plates. Four years later, Eastman pioneered the Kodak camera backed with rolls of film and the popularity of his company surged because it put photography into the hands of the regular person. Eastman’s campaign was focused on convenience and his “You press the button, and we do the rest” slogan pitched an attractively approachable and user-friendly process (Mendes, 2011).


BRAND MINDS (2018) described this initial business model as a razor and blades strategy, meaning that customers were baited with the provision of a free or extremely inexpensive item that was then used to render the sales of its supplies or other complementary pieces of the process. In Eastman Kodak’s case, it was not the camera that amassed the high amounts of revenue, but rather the purchases of film and the payments for developing and printing the ordered photographs from the Kodak factory. Figure 1 adapts the value chain presented in Mendes (2011) to display the domains and components of Kodak’s traditional business model.

Figure 1.

The Core Components of Kodak’s Traditional Film-Based Business Model

Mendes (2011) also noted that the introduction of color technology continued the surge of Kodak’s popularity, and it became the industry standard by 1963. Furthermore, after heavily investing in Research and Development (R&D) strategies, Kodak expanded their product lines to meet the needs of the medical imagining and graphical arts communities. By 1981, sales topped ten billion dollars.


The Changing Face of Society

The Digital Revolution

Anthony (2016) credited Kodak with the invention of the first digital camera, noting the original toaster-sized protype that Kodak engineer Steve Sasson created in 1975. However, instead of tapping into its potential and exploring the possibility of a new digital terrain, Kodak was not willing to envision a filmless future. The high success of their film-centric business model was revered, and any disruption of the status quo was perceived as a threat to the company’s future. Kotter (2012) rooted this resistance in complacency and explained that Kodak’s decision makers did not see the value nor urgency in altering their current priorities to shift from a working establishment to an unknown risk.


According to BRAND MINDS (2018), Kodak eventually veered into the digital domain and introduced their first digital camera in 1991. Although other companies had already made a name for themselves within this market, Kodak found initial success with their newly launched line of digital products. In fact, for about ten years following this launch, Kodak held approximately 27% of the digital market shares within the United States (Singh, 2015). Unfortunately, as noted by Courtney, Kirkland, and Viguerie (1997), Kodak directly applied their traditional business strategies to the new technology, and instead of re-inventing their approach, they maintained the razor and blades model. As such, Kodak emphasized consumables over the actual devices and focused on processing, printing, and storage modules. Anthony (2016) summarized this as one of Kodak’s first big missteps, explaining that their loyalty to film-based traditions overshot the modern market that had shifted towards digital simplicity.


The Shift Towards Social Photography

BRAND MINDS (2018) argued that while the digital revolution shook the photography community, it was the ensuing social revolution that was most disruptive. Standalone digital cameras disappeared into smartphones and instead of printing their photographs, people began to directly store their photos on their personal devices and/or social media accounts. Images could be instantly obtained and conveniently copied, shared, and disseminated across the internet. Anthony (2016) emphasized that while this new paradigm could have easily been integrated to fit within Kodak’s iconic “share memories, share life” culture, the social aspects of photography were not embraced in that way. For example, although Kodak made an early 2001 purchase of Ofoto, an online photo-sharing site, they transformed it to a new platform for printing, and not sharing/networking, digital images.

The Fate of Eastman Kodak

Bankruptcy

 Singh (2015) confirmed Kodak’s 2012 filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. According to Anthony (2016), their response to society’s disruptive forces was one of the most significant factors leading to their demise. While many companies collapse because they fail to allocate resources towards a pursuit of the new opportunities, this is not what happened with Kodak. Instead, Kodak was at the forefront of both the digital and social revolutions. As was previously noted, an in-house Kodak employee produced the first digital camera and the Ofoto acquisition occurred before Facebook ushered in the era of social media networking. Thus, Kodak possessed the resources and innovative talent to maximize these surrounding changes. What they did not possess, however, was the ability to reinvent their business strategies by detaching themselves from a film-centric model.


How Scenario Planning Could Have Helped

Courtney et al. (1997) explained that there are three different strategic postures that a company can assume: (a) those that shape the future by leading industry operations with the setting of standards and creation of demand; (b) those that adapt to the future with a flexible and rapid response to changing societal trends; and (c) those that reserve the right to play with well-researched investments. Rather than adhering to a singular posture, many successful companies alternate their stance to optimally position themselves within the continuously evolving world. Kodak historically pursued a shaping strategy and while this was originally met with great success, more adaptive flexibility was needed to fully transition into the era of digital imaging and social networks. As such, Kodak embraced the shaper position to a fault, trying to adapt to the future by transforming the emerging trends to fit the mold of their established film-based processes. Perhaps a more successful approach would have been to transform the mold of the internal processes to continue to hold a spot in the developing game.

Figure 2.

Positions for Leveraging Levels of Uncertainty


Courtney et al. (1997) continued to explain that there are a range of options for applying uncertainty in the consideration future trajectories. Figure 2 presents three of these possibilities. When the future is clearly predictable, forecasting is an effective planning approach. As the level of future uncertainty grows, but is still rather limited, techniques such as decision analyses can help to construct a set of discrete possibilities. Kodak mainly straddled these first two strategies, as their unwavering loyalty to film-centric models limited the scope of their considerations. The third approach, which includes scenario planning, incorporates a wide range of uncertainty and if Kodak had pursued trajectories independent of film and printing processes, their future may not have looked so bleak.

Mendes (2011) argued that the digital and social revolutions could have opened the door to additional business opportunities. Figure 3 illustrates some of the options that scenario planning might have introduced and comparing this to the line of services presented in Figure 1, the potential for growth immediately becomes clear. For example, Anthony (2016) cited Fuji Film as a success story, explaining how they shook their core business model to venture into a more unknown domain. After partnering with Xerox, they launched non-film-based products, such as videotapes and optics for magnetic tape. Fuji Film remains continues to remain competitive today, not only within the realm of photography but also within the healthcare industry and processes for electronics operations.  

Figure 3.

The Re-Imagined Potential of Kodak’s Business Model

 

Conclusion

The ultimate bankruptcy of Kodak might have been prevented if the concept of uncertainty was more tightly embraced. Instead of being narrowly blinded to business models that were met with past success, Kodak could have benefitted from a reinvention of internal structures to become more flexibly aligned with changing societal forces. Nimble and agile organizational processes, as well as a culture that remains unsatisfied with complacency, are important aspects of future success.


References

Anthony, S. D. (2016). Kodak’s downfall wasn’t about technology. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2016/07/kodaks-downfall-wasnt-about-technology

BRAND MINDS. (2018). Why did Kodak fail and what can you learn from its demise? https://brand-minds.medium.com/why-did-kodak-fail-and-what-can-you-learn-from-its-failure-70b92793493c

Chermack, T. J. (2004). Improving decision-making with scenario planning. Futures, 36(3), 295-309. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(03)00156-3

Courtney, H., Kirkland, J., & Viguerie, P. (1997). Strategy under uncertainty. Harvard Business Review, November-December, 1-15. https://hbr.org/1997/11/strategy-under-uncertainty

Kotter, J. (2012). Barriers to change: The real reason behind the Kodak downfall. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkotter/2012/05/02/barriers-to-change-the-real-reason-behind-the-kodak-downfall/?sh=21d42e8269ef

Mendes, G. (2011). A strategic analysis: What went wrong at Eastman Kodak? The Strategy Think Tank. https://mba.americaeconomia.com/sites/mba.americaeconomia.com/files/sin_publicar_what-went-wrong-at-eastman-kodak.pdf

Singh, P. (2015). Kodak and the digital revolution – Management of innovation and change. https://pradeepsingh.com/kodak-digital-revolution/

Verity, J. (2003). Scenario planning as a strategy technique. European Business Journal, 15, 185-195.

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