The Statistician's Tea

According to Coates (2000), the term scenario was originally coined to describe the setting of a feature film. Although the definition has since evolved to encompass a few additional dimensions, futurists are most concerned with its meaning as an imagined series of events that are typically infused with intricate details and possibilities. The following discussion introduces the concept of scenario planning and distinguishes it from traditional forecasting measures. Attention is given to the key components of each approach and both the advantages and disadvantages are highlighted. Concluding remarks focus on how scenario planning and forecasting can be considered not as competing techniques, but rather as complimentary methods. Varum and Melo (2010) explained that scenario planning finds its roots in the military strategies that surfaced in the days following World War II. The intellectual theorist Herman Kahn then applied these ideas to the context of public policy and, from there, th...

  Austin, Devin, and Sullivan (2012) emphasized that the innovation process is peppered with unpredictability. According to Deb (2020), this unpredictability typically surfaces in the form of failures or unexpected results and, as such, many serendipitous breakthroughs are the result of open-minded pursuits. The following discussion highlights two accidental discoveries that led to surprising outcomes. After detailing each of the chance events, the supporting forces are also highlighted. Concluding remarks summarize the main discussion points and articulate the lessons learned. The Color Mauve According to Amin (2011), the year was 1856. William Henry Perkin, an eighteen-year-old chemistry student enrolled at London’s Royal College of Chemistry, was challenged by his professor to develop an artificial version of quinine. The goal was to use it as a drug to treat malaria symptoms because of its painkilling, fever-reducing, and anti-inflammatory properties. At the time, the drug was ...

According to Jezierska (2020), there is no universally accepted definition of a think tank. Instead, a think tank is often described in terms of its characteristics which means that in order to understand what they are and how they operate, it is necessary to first understand their influencing factors. The following discussion focuses on different think tank constitutions to highlight their varying objectives. Then, different think tank methods are reviewed to illustrate how they accomplish these goals. Concluding remarks summarize the main discussion points.             Offering a basic description, Ruser (2018) articulated that think tanks are groups dedicated to performing research and designing widespread advocacy efforts. Medvetz (2008) enhanced this, generalizing that think tanks can be depicted as mechanisms for the gathering, organization, and assembly of authoritarian pieces of information put forth by political, business...

  The following discussion highlights two methods for group decision making: the Delphi Technique and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The details of each approach are highlighted, and recommendations are given to help determine the suitable scenarios where each can be applied. Goodman (1987) explained that the Delphi Technique was established in the 1950s when California’s Rand Corporation was inspired to develop a method for eliminating the negative influence of interpersonal interactions during expert meetings for group decision making. As such, its ultimate objective was to generate dialogue and present a medley of vantage points that could facilitate judgements and ensuing policies and/or recommendations. Named after the Greek god and Delphi oracle, Apollo Pythios, whose skills at predicting the future were highly regarded, the Delphi Technique was given ties to an idyllic extreme of unquestioned wisdom and infallible authority (Yousuf, 2007).   According to Row...

       Brown et al. (2020) explained that the decisions of today are based on estimates of what the future will be. As such, it is important to identify up-and-coming trends and technologies so that futuristic scenarios can better be envisioned. This discussion draws from the collection of essays contained in the 2020 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report to highlight both a technology and a trend associated with higher education. Impacting forces are reviewed and concluding remarks focus on summarizing the main discussion points. Key Trend: The Economics of Climate Change Figure 1 . Climate Change Impact      Brown et al. (2020) articulated a medley of developing trends with respect to education, noting that teaching strategies and learning practices are impacted by social, technological, economic, and political influences. Regarding the economic aspects, it was emphasized that institutions of higher education are expected to meticulously manage their operating r...

Welcome to my blog - it's great to have you here ! This blog was created as a medium to share some of the thoughts and assignments for a doctorate-level futuring and innovations course. To better understand my vantage point, please allow me to introduce myself by way of this post. My husband and I are parents to a spunky three-year-old little girl and two Christmas-tree climbing cats. As far as my education goes, I have a bachelor's degree in mathematics, a master's degree in statistics, a second master's degree in biostatistics, and am currently about halfway through my doctorate in computer science with a concentration in big data analytics. In my professional life, I work as a biostatistician in the pharmaceutical field where I design and analyze clinical trial data. In my personal life, I enjoy hot tea, board games, crossword puzzles, party planning, Target runs, and decompressing on mindless reality television shows. This blog will discuss cutting-edge innovations...